Time May10/May17 2021 pp29 |THE RISK REPORT|”Why Putin flexed his military muscle on Ukraine’s border” by Ian Bremmer
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Summary provided by 2244
In the end is it the same ol’ song and dance by Putin? After the Russian economy peaked leading up to 2008, on the strength of its natural gas and oil exports. it’s GDP has fallen from 7% to 1%. Unable or unwilling to diversify the economy, the natives are getting increasingly restless as “Living standards are in decline…[and promises aside] 21 years [of Putin] in power inspire[s] little confidence that better days are ahead.” “Rising frustration with slow growth, poor prospects and massive corruption leaves Putin in need of muscular displays to bolster his popularity.”
Putin explains that the massive military buildup on the Ukrainian border was simply a training exercise. The action regardless had U.S. issuing new sanctions and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky taking “action against a pro-Russian oligarch” and calling to create a “path to NATO membership.” Experts note that an invasion of the large and populous Ukraine is too risky but the value of the saber rattling lies in Putin marking “Russia’s territory across its 'near abroad'" and in having “U.S. and European leaders to see that Russia is determined and willing to take risks to protect” their interests. What’s worrisome is that as “conditions get tougher, Putin will feel the need to look tougher still.”
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